Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
