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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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